Biological Explanation for Reduction in U.S. Murder Rate 2005

Copyright 2005, James Michael Howard, Fayetteville, Arkansas, U.S.A.

(Gonorrhea rate down to lowest rate since measured in 1941 according to CDC November 8, 2005.  This may also be explained by reduced fertility in women.  Pertinent abstract is below.)

November 17, 2005: HIV infection rate is declining in blacks but not whites: HIV infection rate decreasing in minorities

New cases in blacks dropped about 5 percent a year since 2001, CDC says.  I suggest this is due to the same mechanism I have explained in this treatise.


There may be an explanation why the U.S. murder rate has hit a 40-year low despite reasons that it should be increasing.  It is my hypothesis that the “secular trend,” the increase in size and earlier puberty of our children, which is real and robust in America (Archives of Pediatric and Adolescent Medicine. 2000; 154: 155), is caused by an increase in the percentage of individuals of higher testosterone over time within the population.  This is driven mainly by increases in the percentage of women of higher testosterone.  They reproduce more often than women of lower testosterone and their fetuses are exposed to increased testosterone in utero.  Testosterone determines sex drive of men and women and “predicts initiation of coitus in adolescent females” (Psychosomatic Medicine 1997; 59: 161-71).  As time passes, these women and their offspring increase their percentage in the population.

A recent study of parents and children found that the characteristics of mothers was critical in their children’s behaviors.  The main predictor of the “chronic physical aggression trajectory” group of children was mothers who exhibited “low education and teenage motherhood.”  Their male children are very difficult to control: “The odds of male offspring of poorly educated teenage mothers not desisting from a high level of physical aggression at age 6 years are 9.3 times greater than those of their counterparts without such mothers.” (Archives of General Psychiatry 2001; 58: 389-394).  This group of boys who essentially never control themselves was 4% of the study group; this is similar to the 3.3% decline in murder rate.  The characteristics of the fathers were not involved in this very aggressive group of children.  I suggest these mothers produce excessive testosterone which adversely affects the brains of their children in utero, not later in life.

Excessive testosterone ultimately reduces fertility in women.  It has been reported that “…increased testosterone may reduce fertility in women and girls without outward signs of excessive testosterone.  (Human Reproduction 1988; 3: 437-439).  Therefore, as the secular trend continues, the numbers of offspring of high testosterone women will also, ultimately decline.  I suggest this will result in changes in overall behavior within our population.  This effect may reduce the numbers of children in the “chronic physical aggression trajectory.”

Violent crime may decline further in the future as infertility increases in these women.  It may also mean that other characteristics, caused by exposure to excessive testosterone in utero, may decline in the future.  Perhaps we should consider this possible explanation before various groups from the “right” and “left” try to take undeserved credit for these biological causes and effects and spend our valuable time and money uselessly.



Regarding gonorrhea:


Vestn Dermatol Venerol. 1990;(8):35-8


[The sex hormone content of the peripheral blood in women with gonorrhea and gonorrhea-trichomoniasis infections]


[Article in Russian]


Iagovdik NZ, Evseenko IA.


Peripheral blood estradiol, progesterone, testosterone were measured in 100 women with gonorrhea and Gonococcus-Trichomonas infection. Estradiol levels were found reduced in both phases, progesterone level elevated in the follicular and lowered in the lutein phases of the menstrual cycle as against the norm. Elevated testosterone levels were revealed in the peripheral blood of women with gonorrhea, particularly so in chronic gonorrhea and mixed Gonococcus-Trichomonas infection. Therapy did not result in normalization of blood hormone concentrations, this pointing to advisability of including the drugs correcting hormonal disorders into a complex of treatment of such patients.